The Intersection of Natural Gas, Energy Demand Growth, and National Security

On top of its ability to reduce global emissions through coal-to-gas switching, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) has enhanced global energy security by protecting allies from adversaries. The world’s appetite for energy rose at a faster-than-average pace in 2024 and will continue to increase, meaning U.S. LNG will only become more important to securing the world’s energy supply. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of AI, manufacturing, and electrification is driving domestic power needs faster than anticipated, creating another frontier of energy demand that natural gas must help satisfy.

The U.S. is confronting global energy security and climate challenges, while also working to bolster U.S. economic competitiveness and keep energy affordable. Given the strategic importance of deploying natural gas to responsibly satisfy energy demand at home and abroad, lawmakers must prioritize scaling natural gas infrastructure as a pillar of our national security.

Converging Priorities

Since the turn of the century, U.S. natural gas has been indispensable to our decarbonization efforts and global energy security. One reason the U.S. was able to satisfy both domestic and international natural gas demand over the past decade is because domestic energy production rose faster than consumption. Innovations in extraction and greater domestic energy efficiency – combined with a global market for our natural gas – created a mutually beneficial relationship between American resources and the world.

But the picture of energy demand is shifting rapidly. Global human development is driving the world’s demand for energy faster than it has before while the AI boom, reshored domestic manufacturing, and electrification are leading to similar demand growth in America.

America’s national security priorities are not an either-or proposition. Satisfying global energy demand with LNG has never been more important, and powering a new era of American economic competitiveness here at home is equally critical. The U.S. has nearly 4,000 Tcf of future gas supply, an amount that can supply domestic and international demand for many decades. But without building new infrastructure such as pipelines, we won’t be able to deliver our natural gas to consumers that increasingly rely on it.

Demand Increasing

Domestic electricity demand is growing and will continue to increase substantially in the coming decades. From 2001 to 2024, U.S. annual electricity consumption grew by only 0.5% per year. However, electricity demand is now projected to rise by nearly 16% by 2029. Power consumption by data centers alone is on course to account for almost half of the growth in U.S. electricity demand between now and 2030, and natural gas is anticipated to satisfy 60% of that demand. Growth is also likely to persist in the longer term, with U.S. electricity demand expected to increase 35-50% by 2040.

These figures are staggering, but if the U.S. wants to be on the forefront of AI and manufacturing to compete with global adversaries, lowering electricity consumption is not an option. That’s going to require a tremendous amount of new power coming online from every source we have at our disposal, most importantly natural gas which can provide 24/7 power to support other energy sources.

Meeting Needs, Lowering Emissions

Satisfying rapidly increasing energy demand requires quickly building the energy infrastructure necessary to satisfy our needs, but it is also critical to scale that infrastructure responsibly. The emissions reduction benefits of coal-to-gas switching are well established, but the methane intensity of gas systems in the U.S. also declined by 40% between 2014 and 2024, signaling that the industry is committed to continue advancing natural gas’ climate potential.

The industry is focused on building upon its innovative progress, and in doing so, we can responsibly power the American economy and secure our global economic competitiveness. With these ambitions in mind, we need action to address our infrastructure. This urgency underscores that permitting reform, which will enable the energy industry to build solutions like pipelines and LNG facilities, should be a must-pass, bipartisan legislative priority for Congress.

U.S. LNG Exports are the Key to Global Energy Security

Expanding LNG exports will allow the U.S. to use its energy abundance as a force for good in the world.

Permitting Reform can Unlock our Natural Gas Resources

With permitting reform, we can resume building the energy projects we need to meet rising energy demands in the U.S. and around the world. Increasing U.S. liquid natural gas exports to replace foreign coal can get the world back on track to further reducing our global emissions and providing energy security—all while delivering cleaner, more reliable, and affordable energy for all.

PAGE Energy Policy Priorities in the First 100 Days

The Trump Administration and Congress have an opportunity to increase LNG exports, pass permitting reform and address methane emissions

The results of the 2024 U.S. elections demonstrate that support for natural gas production was a winning issue. A large majority of voters support a steady energy transition using all available options, including natural gas. Ultimately, elected officials of both parties who expressed alignment with these energy priorities were rewarded by voters. Following President Donald Trump’s inauguration and the start of the 119th Congress, lawmakers have an opportunity to expand affordable and reliable natural gas’ role as an energy security and climate solution.  

The Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) looks forward to working with the new Administration and Congress on critical energy and climate issues. This includes increasing liquified natural gas (LNG) exports, addressing methane emissions and passing meaningful permitting reform.

Increasing LNG Exports

The U.S. has emerged as a leading exporter of LNG, driven by technological advancement and a global shift towards cleaner energy sources. The positive climate impact of U.S. LNG has been tremendous, with a recent study by ICF International confirming that U.S. LNG exports produced fewer greenhouse gas emissions compared to coal in 2022.

Quote from Chris Treanor, Executive Director of PAGE: “This study underscores the fact that natural gas is a cleaner alternative to coal and must remain a solution to achieving our climate and energy security goals."

However, the Biden Administration temporarily paused approvals of new LNG exports in January 2024 while they studied whether exports are in the public interest. This left our international partners questioning the U.S.’s commitment to delivering energy security to protect them from Russian aggression, which is in direct conflict with our push for foreign aid to support our allies’ sovereignty. While the flawed study still needs to be finalized, the Trump Administration has thankfully reversed the pause and provided certainty to our allies that they’ll have access to a more secure and affordable energy supply that helps reduce global emissions and builds a stronger domestic economy. The Trump Administration and Congress can build on this progress by continuing to prioritize LNG exports as part of a broader energy security and decarbonization strategy.

Passing Permitting Reform

Yet, we cannot meet the growing energy demand without permitting reform. Our nation’s energy infrastructure is at capacity, and significant infrastructure investments are needed to unleash all energy resources, including natural gas and renewables. Natural gas demand has grown 43% since 2013, while infrastructure to deliver it has only increased 25%, and storage delivery capacity has only grown 2%. This trend has resulted in higher prices and reliability challenges, even though abundant and affordable supplies remain available.

The current permitting process for energy projects is lengthy and complex, often involving multiple federal and state agencies and taking up to a decade to complete. Streamlining this process is essential to expediting project approvals and reducing bureaucratic delays.

Previous legislative efforts have aimed to simplify the permitting process without compromising environmental standards. However, they have not resulted in the scale of progression needed to achieve our goals. PAGE calls on the new Congress to pass comprehensive permitting reform that includes targeted improvements to the Natural Gas Act and integration of state reviews into the existing Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) process. This will untangle bureaucratic bottlenecks preventing American energy from reaching consumers. 

Reducing Methane Emissions

While natural gas is itself a clean-burning energy resource, it is important that the supply chain delivering that resource is operated in a way that also limits methane emissions. To achieve our shared goals, we need to reduce these potent emissions and the energy sector has the largest potential for a rapid reduction.

The good news is that U.S. oil and gas methane emissions are on the decline. PAGE and others in the natural gas industry have taken extraordinary measures to reduce methane emissions by implementing operational changes and expanding the use of innovative technologies – making U.S. LNG one of the lowest-intensity natural gas sources in the world. Exporting more U.S. natural gas abroad is an important next step to reduce emissions globally, especially in countries like China, whose coal dependency is responsible for 15% of the world’s methane emissions.

We encourage reasonable methane recommendations from policymakers to improve emissions measurement by investing in advanced detection, monitoring and measurement technologies and practices to continue contributing to global emissions reduction goals which will keep U.S. LNG competitive on a global scale. In early 2024, the EU adopted stringent methane regulations for all oil, gas and coal imports, creating an economic opportunity for energy producing nations who comply with these standards. By fostering efforts that help U.S. LNG meet Europe’s regulations, the Trump Administration can unlock the economic benefits and jobs associated with producing and shipping LNG, while bolstering energy security here and abroad.  

The Bottom Line

Voters have made clear that they favor energy policies that prioritize affordability and reliability, and the new Administration and Congress have an opportunity to address these issues as they begin their terms this month. PAGE is eager to engage with policymakers on solutions to increase U.S. natural gas production, make our energies cleaner, and pass legislation that speeds up the permitting process. By embracing innovation and collaboration, the U.S. can continue to play a pivotal energy leadership role, delivering responsible LNG to global markets.

Insights from Climate Week NYC: U.S. Natural Gas is the Ideal Energy Source of the World

U.S. natural gas can help us achieve our global climate goals and provide energy security for our allies

For years, Climate Week NYC has provided policymakers, government officials, and industry leaders with a platform to discuss effective solutions to decarbonize global emissions. Among over 100,000 estimated participants at Climate Week, the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) was at the forefront of these conversations, emphasizing the bipartisan and international consensus that natural gas plays a key role in the energy transition as a reliable low-carbon energy source.

The consensus coming out of Climate Week is clear – natural gas is essential to achieving the dual goals of energy security and reducing global emissions, by decreasing dependence on global coal and dirtier energy from Russia. One of the most effective ways to lower power sector and industrial emissions is to switch from coal to natural gas, especially in regions heavily reliant on coal. We've seen the results of this approach firsthand in the U.S, where 65% of the country’s power sector emissions reductions from 2005-2019 were achieved through coal-to-gas switching.

“It’s Never Been a More Important Time to Produce Energy”

PAGE kicked off Climate Week by sponsoring an Axios event, “A Conversation on Global Deployment of Energy Alternatives to Coal.” During the “View from the Top” discussion, Toby Z. Rice, President & CEO of EQT, emphasized how replacing foreign coal with U.S. natural gas is the best way to continue reducing worldwide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but that there are barriers to delivering affordable and reliable energy for consumers. Among these challenges include a lack of natural gas infrastructure and the Department of Energy’s pause on liquified natural gas (LNG) export approvals, preventing the U.S. from delivering sufficient natural gas supplies to our allies overseas. His remarks echoed earlier points raised by Ali Zaidi, Assistant to the President and National Climate Advisor, who noted “it’s increasingly hard to get natural gas infrastructure built in the United States," due to a number of roadblocks.

The conversation about the benefits of U.S. natural gas continued throughout Climate Week and culminated in the presentation of a new independent report released by the Center on Regulation in Europe – “Securing Europe’s Net Zero Path and Flexible LNG.” The study confirmed the key role of LNG as a transitional fuel that can ensure Europe’s energy security and achieve the EU’s ambitious climate goals. Notable speakers during the presentation included Ditte Juul Jørgensen, Director General for Energy of the European Commission, Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt, Assistant Secretary of the Bureau of Energy Resources, and PAGE member Naomi Boness, Managing Director, Stanford Natural Gas and Stanford Hydrogen Initiatives, who highlighted the importance of cooperation among allies to ensure a reliable energy supply during times of heightened geopolitical instability.

In Europe, the absence of stable energy supplies has contributed to a volatile energy market, with electricity prices now 2-3 times higher than those in the U.S. according to the recent Draghi Report. As a consequence, several EU states are reopening once dormant coal plants to reduce energy costs. While there may be short-term economic benefits, this rise in coal-fired power generation can have disastrous climate impacts and not provide longer-term stability to energy markets in Europe and the rest of the world. In fact, if just 5% of the worst emitting coal-power plants switched to natural gas, global power sector emissions would be reduced by 30%. This would increase to nearly 50% if that switch incorporated carbon capture and storage.

From left to right: Geoffrey Pyatt, Ditte Juul Jørgensen, Toby Z. Rice

We Must Address the Elephant in the Room – Methane

Another important part of PAGE’s message at Climate Week focused on the need to address the elephant in the room – methane. The U.S. natural gas industry understands the critical role it must play in in reducing methane emissions and PAGE members have already taken significant steps to eliminate methane through investment and innovation. These efforts have helped establish U.S. natural gas as among the cleanest in the world.

As a result, U.S. methane emissions decreased by 23% from 2020 - 2022, with only an additional 7% decline needed by 2030 to meet the global methane pledge. By further reducing methane emissions across the natural gas value chain, we can continue to secure our allies’ energy in the cleanest way possible. Several House Democrats recently acknowledged this in a letter to President Biden, affirming that “American LNG is produced with some of the strongest environmental protections globally.”

The Bottom Line

As we navigate the complexities of the energy transition, U.S. natural gas stands alone as the most viable solution to reduce global GHG emissions and secure energy supplies. At Climate Week, this consensus was apparent among conversations with policymakers and industry experts, reflecting the pragmatic dialogue last year at COP28 that recognized natural gas as having a key role to play in meeting the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement.

As we look towards the future, we need to capitalize on the opportunity we have before us. The U.S. has a responsibility to lead this movement towards a cleaner, more secure energy future with our abundant supply of natural gas.

Securing Europe’s Net Zero Path with Flexible LNG

The European think tank Center on Regulation in Europe (CERRE) released an independent report, with key contributions from the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE), which underscores the critical role that flexible U.S. LNG plays in Europe’s energy security and decarbonization pathway.

Top findings of the CERRE report include:

Access the executive summary and full summary here.

Voters Overwhelmingly Supportive of Natural Gas. Democratic Candidates Can Take Advantage.

Others remain silent and risk missing out on a potent electoral issue and tool for quickly decarbonizing emissions.

With the 2024 U.S. elections just two months away, candidates have limited time to engage with voters and take a stance on several critical issues, including the direction of energy and climate policy.

While Democrats have largely avoided public support for natural gas this election cycle, the recent presidential debate hosted by ABC News reinforced the bipartisan backing of this vital American resource. During the debate, Vice President Kamala Harris highlighted her work to invest in a diversity of energy sources including increasing “domestic gas production to historic levels.” While her remarks indicate a growing understanding of where voters are on the issue, the evidence suggests that adopting a more outwardly supportive position on natural gas will help her develop inroads with a majority of voters in both parties.

As the election draws nearer, Harris and the Democratic party have an opportunity to unite voters by being vocal about opportunities to use U.S. natural gas as a proven and widely popular decarbonization tool in the energy transition.

Jumpstarted by the U.S. shale boom, natural gas has been a key factor in reducing domestic emissions over last several years, and was once again the largest driver behind U.S. energy sector emissions reductions in 2023. Meanwhile, it has also served as an economic and job-creation engine in states like Pennsylvania.

A recent nationwide poll conducted by Impact Research and commissioned by the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) shows that voters overwhelmingly support natural gas. In fact, 69% of voters, including most Democrats, support increasing natural gas production.

“The path to victory is clear: voters support natural gas, and lawmakers who have heeded public opinion have overwhelmingly been successful in their elections.”

The poll found that voters are increasingly pragmatic about the energy transition and the role of cleaner fuel sources such as natural gas. 76% of voters and 80% of Democrats want the country to move steadily to clean energy, using all available options, including natural gas, to keep energy affordable and reliable.  

A winning issue for politicians and the environment

This recent polling is not an anomaly. The last several years have also proven that supporting natural gas is a winner at the ballot box, particularly for Democrats.

Lawmakers who publicly back this position include Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA), a proponent of natural gas production, who has claimed that "climate change is an existential threat, but we must transition in a way that preserves the union way of life for thousands of workers currently employed or supported by the natural gas industry in Pennsylvania and the communities where they live."

In 2022, Fetterman vocally supported natural gas and won a hotly-contested Senate seat in a year when Republicans expected to make significant legislative gains. Two years after prevailing in this election, Fetterman holds a net +7% approval rating, according to a New York Times/Siena poll.

Besides Fetterman, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) has found similar electoral success. Bennet, now a three-term Senator, believes "it's been very important for American liquified natural gas (LNG) to replace the natural gas Russia was sending to Europe." The results showed in the 2022 midterms, where Bennet secured his reelection by 14.6%.

In the House, Rep. Jared Golden (D-ME) – also a strong proponent of exporting U.S. LNG to our allies overseas – represents one of the most competitive districts in the country. Nevertheless, Golden triumphed in 2020 despite Donald Trump winning the district by 11% that same year. And in 2022, Golden was reelected by 6.2%.

The Time to Champion Decarbonization is Now

The path to victory is clear: voters support natural gas, and lawmakers who have heeded public opinion have overwhelmingly been successful in their elections. By contrast, pursuing overly ambitious climate policies at the expense of proven solutions can have election consequences.

As we saw in Europe this summer, voters are willing to vote against policymakers who do not prioritize energy affordability, reliability, and security. As a result, pragmatic energy proponents made significant electoral gains across the EU's parliamentary elections.

The bottom line is that natural gas is an effective climate solution, and policymakers can openly support sensible energy policies to help them align with voters.  

Shying away from natural gas could cost candidates support in November

Pursuing perfection at the expense of the good would derail the climate progress we’ve achieved over the last several years 

Ahead of the 2024 U.S. elections, policymakers have only a few more months to make their case to the American people on how to address several critical issues, including the direction of energy and climate policy at the national level. 

Over the past two decades, the U.S. has made significant progress in reducing carbon emissions with the help of U.S. natural gas, which accounts for a substantial portion of the decrease. Additionally, the Biden Administration and Congress have successfully implemented a range of policies over the last several years to tackle the nation’s CO2 emissions further. 

Voters, including 80% of Democrats, want a steady transition to clean energy using all available resources.

However, rather than taking credit for these victories, some lawmakers have hesitated to voice their support for natural gas, fearing alienating voters and hurting their re-election chances. Ironically, for these policymakers, shying away from natural gas could do the reverse and hurt their re-election efforts.  

According to a new nationwide poll conducted by Impact Research and commissioned by the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE), 69% of voters, including most Democrats, support increasing natural gas production. 

Backfiring Ambition 

Pursuing perfection at the expense of the good could derail our climate goals and make it even more challenging to achieve the targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement. Climate-focused policymakers who fail to voice their support for affordable, reliable, and secure energy policies that include natural gas could face disappointing results at the ballot box in November. In fact, voters – including 80% of Democrats – want a steady transition to clean energy using all available resources according to the poll. 

Policymakers encountered a similar scenario in 1993 when the Democratic-controlled House passed a large, broad-based BTU energy tax policy featuring then-President Clinton's high-profile public push. While the bill failed in the Senate, it nevertheless proved consequential in the 1994 mid-terms – Democrats lost 54 seats and control of the House.  

More recently, Democrats pursued an overly ambitious cap-and-trade bill in 2010—the American Clean Energy and Security Act. The bill sought to impose a market-based system that would set a ceiling on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while allowing companies to trade permits to meet these requirements.  

Much like the BTU tax, the cap-and-trade bill never made it through the Senate, mainly because an independent EIA study commissioned by Senate Democrats found that it would increase energy prices. This misfire provided campaign fodder for Republicans during the election cycle, and Democrats paid the price at the ballot box, losing a historic 63 House seats during the 2010 mid-terms. 

Democrats still have time to support a popular solution responsible for a large portion of U.S. emissions reductions.

Lessons for 2024 

With half the world's population holding elections in 2024, politicians would be wise to learn from the past and support a steady, pragmatic, clean energy transition using all available resources.  

As we saw last month, the EU's Green Party faced significant losses in parliamentary elections. In contrast, opponents of highly restrictive EU climate policies saw substantial gains in countries including France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy.  

These results indicate that policymakers were moving faster on climate initiatives, impacting affordability and reliability, than voters were comfortable with. These losses may result in a dramatic shift in EU climate policy in the foreseeable future.   

EP Elections: The Shape of the New Parliament

As U.S. policymakers look onward, they currently sit at a significant crossroads. They can either pursue overly ambitious climate policies that voters don't support or embrace a proven approach to tackling global emissions and ensure our energy security by supporting U.S. natural gas.   

Candidates still have time to support a popular solution responsible for a large portion of U.S. emissions reductions. However, the clock is ticking, and voters have shown little patience with politicians who fail to heed public opinion.   

New poll finds that nearly 70% of voters support increasing natural gas production

There is a broad consensus that voters want natural gas to be part of a steady transition to clean energy 

Among a number of pressing issues, this November American voters will decide on the direction of energy and climate policy for years to come. Over the past three plus years, the Biden Administration and Congress have pursued a climate agenda that prioritized reducing emissions. Yet Democratic policymakers have shied away from publicly supporting the primary driver behind U.S. emissions reductions – natural gas – for fear of alienating voters. 

The reality is voters across party lines overwhelmingly want natural gas to play a role in the energy transition. That’s what a new nationwide poll conducted by Democratic polling firm Impact Research and commissioned by the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) found. Ahead of the upcoming election, climate-minded candidates would be wise to consider where voters stand on natural gas as an energy and climate solution. 

The poll found that voters are increasingly pragmatic about the energy transition, as 76% of voters and 80% of Democrats want the country to steadily transition to clean energy by using all options currently available to keep energy affordable and reliable. The appeal of this approach is growing rapidly, with support for a steady transition climbing 11 percentage points today compared to 2022. 

But what do Americans mean by a “steady” transition? The poll overwhelmingly shows that voters want the steady transition to feature natural gas.

Nearly 70% of voters are in favor of increasing natural gas production, including majorities of Democrats (59%) and Independents (63%).

Moderate Democratic support for increased production has progressed the most, with net support growing 10 percentage points since 2022. Natural gas, only slightly behind renewables, such as solar (84%) and wind energy (78%), is the top energy source voters want to see used more, with 67% in favor of increased usage.  

Widespread support for natural gas also extends to exporting the fuel to our allies. More than half of all voters (58%) and Democrats (63%) say it’s important to support our allies by providing reliable energy exports of natural gas. In the same vein, there is net support (+12 overall / +13 Democrats) for increasing the exportation of American-produced natural gas to allied nations. 

This support for natural gas is driven by reliability and affordability being top of mind for voters. Reducing energy costs is a top priority for a majority of voters across party lines, including 62% of moderate Democrats and 58% of Independents. Additionally, nearly 60% of voters believe that strengthening U.S. energy independence is vital for energy policy.

The results are clear: Democrats must be willing to meet voters where they are on climate solutions, which include natural gas. Recent history suggests that failing to balance emissions with affordability and reliability hurts Democrats at the polls. For example, Democrats suffered historic election losses following the unsuccessful cap-and-trade bill of 2010. It was nearly a decade following those votes before a majority of voters supported ambitious climate legislation. 

By aligning with the majority of voters and advocating for reliable, affordable, and clean energy, our leaders can better position themselves to drive a successful long-term energy transition that reduces emissions, creates jobs, and strengthens the economy. 

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