Pausing Global Coal-to-Natural Gas Conversions Will Substantially Slow Pace of Emissions Reductions

It is imperative that the Energy Department reverse course and allow natural gas to continue as a driver of cleaner, more secure energy worldwide.

With global CO2 emissions rising, President Biden has rightfully adopted firm climate commitments through landmark legislation such as the Inflation Reduction Act and notable executive actions on methane emissions.

However, the Department of Energy's (DOE) recent decision to pause pending approvals of liquified natural gas (LNG) exports is contrary to this pattern of firm climate policy. Pausing U.S. LNG exports will force nations worldwide to turn to dirtier, less reliable forms of energy, such as coal, making it increasingly difficult to achieve the goals set out in the Paris Climate Agreement.

The administration says the pause is to study natural gas's climate impacts, but gas has already proven to be a climate solution. Delaying our exports will force our allies to look elsewhere to meet their energy needs, which is why the administration must reverse course and allow natural gas to continue to be the driver of cleaner, more secure energy on a global scale.

New research from the International Energy Agency shows coal-to-gas switching was the most significant driver behind U.S. energy sector emissions reductions in 2023.

U.S. natural gas is the cleanest, most reliable baseload energy source

The U.S. has provided a model showing that phasing out dirty coal-fired power plants and replacing them with low-carbon natural gas is a pivotal part of the global energy transition.

New research from the International Energy Agency shows coal-to-gas switching was the most significant driver behind U.S. energy sector emissions reductions in 2023. Coal-to-gas switching has also helped the U.S. reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 17% over the last two decades.

The natural gas industry is also making rapid progress in reducing methane emissions, cementing natural gas's role in the energy transition. The sector is proving it's taking methane seriously, leading to a 23% reduction in U.S. energy industry methane emissions from 2020 through 2022. Only an additional 7% decline is needed by 2030 to meet the global methane pledge.

This methane progress is only growing natural gas's positive climate impact. It builds on the DOE's 2019 study, which concluded that the life cycle emissions of U.S. LNG exports to Europe and Asia are lower than those of regional coal and Russian gas.

The natural gas export pause will harm allies

Despite the clear environmental benefits of increasingly low-carbon natural gas, Biden’s pause on LNG exports makes it exceedingly difficult to achieve our global climate goals.

Without a reliable energy supply, our allies could once again become dependent on dirtier, less secure, and less reliable energy from undemocratic countries like Russia, Iran, and Qatar. This situation has already proven true with a resurgence in global coal use, with Germany and other EU members activating once-dormant coal plants to ensure stable energy supplies.

Without natural gas, we cannot facilitate the clean energy transition

Another key ramification of the pause is that it will significantly impact the developing world's decarbonization ability. According to McKinsey & Company, combating climate change is likely only possible if developing countries achieve clean, low-carbon economies. These changes can also help generate increased capital and economic opportunities in these regions.

To help facilitate a just and global clean energy transition, the Biden Administration has invested over $200 million to expand access to renewable energy in Africa. While these efforts are laudable, renewables alone cannot generate the baseload of energy the countries need. Furthermore, developing countries need approximately $1.7 trillion annually worth of renewable energy investments, making natural gas a far more financially feasible option.

The science is clear—U.S. natural gas is a crucial emissions reduction driver and is critical to achieving the world's climate goals.

These shortcomings have been notable in countries like China, where declining hydropower production due to droughts has brought about a resurgence in coal use, thereby diminishing other progress on renewables. Today, China emits the most energy-related CO2 emissions globally and could remain in that position through 2050 as it doubles down on coal.

The good news is that natural gas is the ideal complement to renewables to facilitate the energy transition. Together, their energy outputs ensure stable production flows while providing both developed and developing countries access to clean, affordable, and reliable energy.

The bottom line

The science is clear—U.S. natural gas is a crucial emissions reduction driver and is critical to achieving the world's climate goals. However, the Biden Administration has implemented an energy policy that will counter the very goals it has committed to achieving.

By expanding natural gas production and sending it to coal-reliant regions, we can export a proven climate solution to the world.

Irrational energy policy puts U.S. national security in jeopardy

By reducing the availability of U.S. LNG, our allies will become dependent on less secure, dirtier energy from undemocratic countries.

Amid outbreaks of violence in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, President Biden is rightfully urging foreign aid to secure the sovereignty of our allies and, by extension, the safety of the American people. This commitment to international stability is laudable.

However, the Department of Energy’s (DOE) recent decision to pause pending approvals for liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facilities is in direct conflict with this goal, possibly leaving our allies reliant on authoritarian regimes for energy. In this way, energy policy is foreign policy, and the U.S. is contradicting itself and ceding American leadership by empowering the same adversaries it is trying to push back on.

The impacts of the pause are profound, as two-thirds of the world's economically recoverable gas is in just four countries: Russia, Iran, Qatar, and the U.S.

Just days after the pause, Qatar announced it would expand its LNG production. Now, market experts predict that the country could control a nearly 25% share of the global market and squeeze out projects from the U.S. Consequently, our allies could become dependent on dirtier, less secure, and less reliable energy from undemocratic countries.

This pause is anything but rational – it is not based on science, it compromises our national security, and it puts our allies at the mercy of authoritarian powers.

Seemingly overnight, we have damaged our global reputation by allowing our adversaries to gain the upper hand. The Biden administration must recognize the repercussions of this misguided policy and change course before it’s too late.

Not only does this risk destabilizing Europe’s highly volatile energy market, but it fundamentally damages our reputation as a reliable, consistent energy partner abroad.

Europe's energy security is on the line

Europe’s energy crisis over the last two years shows what happens when our allies depend on tyrants like Vladimir Putin to meet their energy needs. Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. supplied the EU with 40% of its LNG imports after Putin cut off gas supplies to the continent.

While many Democrats initially supported this policy, support has declined recently under the assumption that Europe no longer needs our help, and that current U.S. production is overshooting waning demand.

However, the job of securing Europe’s energy is unfinished, as 20% of Europe’s gas still comes from Russia and Qatar.

Meanwhile, European energy ministers are renewing measures to keep natural gas demand 15% below pre-invasion levels. If Europe’s LNG demand increases due to environmental factors, such as a return to average winter temperatures, this policy will create severe geopolitical risks. European countries may even have to divert economic resources from supporting Ukraine to make up for higher energy prices.

Not only does this risk destabilizing Europe’s highly volatile energy market, but it fundamentally damages our reputation as a reliable, consistent energy partner abroad. Consequently, we risk once again conceding Europe’s energy supplies to Putin, allowing him to continue to fund his war in Ukraine.

China has impeded the Philippines' efforts to explore potential gas fields in the West Philippine Sea. This situation may force the Philippine government to negotiate with Xi Jinping instead of working with the U.S. to compensate for the energy deficit.

The U.S. is the global guarantor of energy security

The Biden administration’s pause on LNG exports will affect our allies in Europe and ripple across the rest of the world. EU officials have recognized that the U.S. is the “global guarantor of energy security” and have underscored that its responsibility goes beyond Europe.

In Japan, the world’s second-largest purchaser of LNG, the government expects the pause to delay the start of new LNG production from the U.S. and ultimately compromise the country’s energy security.

The pause has also put the Philippines on the verge of an energy crisis. The country is already anticipating declines in its local gas fields, which supply a significant portion of its fuel.

China has impeded the Philippines' efforts to explore potential gas fields in the West Philippine Sea. This situation may force the Philippine government to negotiate with Xi Jinping instead of working with the U.S. to compensate for the energy deficit.

Ultimately, U.S. LNG exports solve our Asian allies’ energy security challenges. While some members of Congress believe that U.S. gas provides adversaries like China with an affordable energy supply, the reality is that China’s energy consumption and industrial growth are inevitable.

It is also far more advantageous for China to rely on American energy than for our allies to depend on Beijing to keep their lights on with carbon-intensive Chinese coal.

We need energy policies that protect our national security

The Biden administration has left our allies stranded. They disregarded foreign policy experts and wielded U.S. energy policy to appeal to a vocal minority.

Our reputation is on the line, and the American people deserve better. That is why the Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) is maintaining its course in fighting for responsible energy policies that support our allies and protect national security.

Pausing LNG export approvals will carry long-term risks for our allies and ability to meet global climate goals

The Biden Administration’s pause on LNG exports will place our allies at the mercy of authoritarian regimes and won’t advance the fight against climate change

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has paused approvals of liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities, injecting insecurity into global energy markets and jeopardizing the goals of the landmark COP28 climate agreement signed in December. That agreement recognized that natural gas is essential to the worldwide energy transition by providing a cleaner fuel source than coal while providing critical energy security. 

Unfortunately, this decision is not based on science and will have unintended impacts on the climate. It will also cut off our allies as they seek secure, less carbon-intensive energy sources to keep their lights on. The Washington Post Editorial Board sees this decision for what it is, "It's an election-year sop to climate activists that will do much more to unsettle vital US alliances than to save the planet."

Pausing LNG exports will resurface global energy insecurity

The rise of global instability in recent years has shown that the world lacks sufficient access to reliable, affordable, and cleaner sources that can adequately replace coal power generation, the largest source of power-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. If we restrict our gas exports, we'll leave our allies vulnerable to dirtier forms of energy, such as coal, and to many of the worst actors on the world stage. 

Two-thirds of the world's economically recoverable gas is in just four countries: Russia, Iran, Qatar, and the U.S. When Russia weaponized its reserves after invading Ukraine – beginning with cutting off its gas supply to Europe – the U.S. quickly stepped forward and supplied LNG to replace methane-intensive Russian gas. This support to our allies accounted for 40% of EU LNG imports in 2022. The New York Times reported that European allies are worried that this decision can undermine their progress to wean themselves off Russian gas. 

The Biden Administration's pause on LNG exports has the potential to resurface the kind of global energy instability we saw following the war in Ukraine. If we restrict our gas exports, our allies will be at the mercy of authoritarian regimes like Putin's. 

Increasing LNG exports helps keep energy prices low at home and abroad

PAGE and its members share the DOE's goal of ensuring affordable and stable energy prices for Americans. However, the pause of LNG exports could devastate the buildout of much-needed infrastructure to ensure Americans have reliable access to energy. 

The conjecture that LNG exports drive up US energy prices is also inaccurate. According to the Center for Strategic and International Affairs (CSIS), increased U.S. LNG exports have not affected energy prices at home over the past five years. 

LNG can help phase out foreign coal and achieve our climate goals

U.S. LNG also helped stabilize gas and electricity prices for customers in Europe. A pause or restriction of U.S. LNG capabilities risks destabilizing gas markets in Europe and beyond, undoing years of responsible energy policy. 

Halting LNG exports will likely result in a continued increase in foreign coal. In 2021, coal accounted for 44% of emissions from fuel combustion while only comprising 27% of the total energy supply. By comparison, gas' share (22%) was lower than its supply (24%).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) also reports that coal production is responsible for more methane than gas. Chinese coal production alone emits 15% of the world's energy-sector methane. This dwarfs LNG liquefaction and shipping methane emissions, which comprise just 0.3%. Meanwhile, Germany and other EU members have activated once-dormant coal plants to ensure their economies have enough energy to support their citizens during peak demand this winter.

The pause of LNG exports will only exacerbate this trend and likely make achieving the targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement unfeasible. 

The Bottom Line

Energy security, cost, and climate action are all critical factors for achieving a sustainable global energy transition. Meeting a strict regulatory process and being produced and transported by responsible companies, U.S. natural gas is the only pragmatic solution to stabilize the energy landscape. 

The Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) strongly opposes the Biden Administration's unfortunate decision and vows to continue fighting for responsible energy policies that protect national security and advance climate solutions. 