U.S. Natural Gas Exports: A Pillar of the Transatlantic Alliance

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerged as a vital solution to help Europe weather the energy crisis, keep its economy running, and ultimately reduce its dependence on Russian gas. This shift not only strengthens global energy security, specifically for our partners in Europe, but also supports U.S. economic growth and geopolitical influence.

However, the work to secure Europe’s energy is not over, as the EU still imports nearly 20% of its gas from Russia. Both sides of the Atlantic must act now to fully decouple Europe from Russia and its weaponization of energy. In May, The European Commission released its roadmap to phase out Russian gas by 2027, but the bloc’s ability to follow through on this policy depends on transatlantic cooperation between governments and the ability of American producers and exporters to reliably deliver gas to our European allies. In the U.S., that means Congress reforming our permitting process to enable the expansion of natural gas infrastructure, including LNG facilities, to do our part to ensure that the EU is able to reliably replace Russian gas.

The Risks Rise to the Top

Before 2022, Russia supplied over 40% of Europe’s gas, but the invasion of Ukraine quickly exposed the dangers of Europe’s dependence on Russia for energy.

Following the invasion, Russia cut-off pipeline gas deliveries to most of Europe, leading to a significant supply shortfall and spurring an energy crisis. An S&P Global study showed that the curtailment of Russian gas supplies led to a spike in gas prices, which reduced Europe's gas consumption by 19%, drove global benchmark energy prices to record highs, and impacted economic growth.

In the face of this crisis, the U.S. was instrumental in quickly filling the gap left by Russia with LNG exports. According to S&P Global, U.S. LNG exports to Europe more than doubled—from 2.1 bcf/d between 2019 and 2021 to 5.6 bcf/d in 2024, with the U.S. now accounting for 46% of the EU’s LNG imports and 18% of its total natural gas.

The Opportunity for U.S. LNG

Given the geopolitical risks of relying on Kremlin-backed natural gas and the demonstrated reliability of American exporters, Europe is well positioned to accelerate its phase-out of Russian gas. In the absence of Russian gas, U.S. LNG—delivered through flexible long-term contracts—can meet European demand, especially as export capacity is set to grow by nearly 50% with the addition of Plaquemines LNG, Corpus Christi LNG, and Golden Pass LNG. With U.S. producers leading in methane reduction, American LNG also offers a cleaner alternative to help the EU meet its climate goals.

“The time is ripe for even greater cooperation (between the U.S. and EU) on LNG. The recognition that U.S. LNG will be more secure, U.S LNG will be cleaner and that it will be easier ultimately to work with U.S. to comply with EU regs with respect to methane.”
Richard Morningstar, Former US Ambassador to the European Union and PAGE Advisory Council Member

Permitting Reform is Key

Unfortunately, regulatory bottlenecks continue to hinder the U.S.’s ability to fully realize its LNG export potential. For too long, outdated permitting processes have limited infrastructure development and constrained export capacity—just as global demand for reliable energy sources is rising.

As the U.S. works to stay economically competitive and strengthen energy security at home and abroad, policymakers must prioritize permitting reform and invest in natural gas infrastructure. Expanding pipelines and LNG facilities will not only drive domestic growth but also demonstrate to Europe that the U.S. is a reliable, long-term energy partner. Achieving this vision would reinforce global momentum for continued sanctions on Russian LNG and solidify the U.S. as the cornerstone of global energy leadership for the future.

The Intersection of Natural Gas, Energy Demand Growth, and National Security

On top of its ability to reduce global emissions through coal-to-gas switching, U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) has enhanced global energy security by protecting allies from adversaries. The world’s appetite for energy rose at a faster-than-average pace in 2024 and will continue to increase, meaning U.S. LNG will only become more important to securing the world’s energy supply. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of AI, manufacturing, and electrification is driving domestic power needs faster than anticipated, creating another frontier of energy demand that natural gas must help satisfy.

The U.S. is confronting global energy security and climate challenges, while also working to bolster U.S. economic competitiveness and keep energy affordable. Given the strategic importance of deploying natural gas to responsibly satisfy energy demand at home and abroad, lawmakers must prioritize scaling natural gas infrastructure as a pillar of our national security.

Converging Priorities

Since the turn of the century, U.S. natural gas has been indispensable to our decarbonization efforts and global energy security. One reason the U.S. was able to satisfy both domestic and international natural gas demand over the past decade is because domestic energy production rose faster than consumption. Innovations in extraction and greater domestic energy efficiency – combined with a global market for our natural gas – created a mutually beneficial relationship between American resources and the world.

But the picture of energy demand is shifting rapidly. Global human development is driving the world’s demand for energy faster than it has before while the AI boom, reshored domestic manufacturing, and electrification are leading to similar demand growth in America.

America’s national security priorities are not an either-or proposition. Satisfying global energy demand with LNG has never been more important, and powering a new era of American economic competitiveness here at home is equally critical. The U.S. has nearly 4,000 Tcf of future gas supply, an amount that can supply domestic and international demand for many decades. But without building new infrastructure such as pipelines, we won’t be able to deliver our natural gas to consumers that increasingly rely on it.

Demand Increasing

Domestic electricity demand is growing and will continue to increase substantially in the coming decades. From 2001 to 2024, U.S. annual electricity consumption grew by only 0.5% per year. However, electricity demand is now projected to rise by nearly 16% by 2029. Power consumption by data centers alone is on course to account for almost half of the growth in U.S. electricity demand between now and 2030, and natural gas is anticipated to satisfy 60% of that demand. Growth is also likely to persist in the longer term, with U.S. electricity demand expected to increase 35-50% by 2040.

These figures are staggering, but if the U.S. wants to be on the forefront of AI and manufacturing to compete with global adversaries, lowering electricity consumption is not an option. That’s going to require a tremendous amount of new power coming online from every source we have at our disposal, most importantly natural gas which can provide 24/7 power to support other energy sources.

Meeting Needs, Lowering Emissions

Satisfying rapidly increasing energy demand requires quickly building the energy infrastructure necessary to satisfy our needs, but it is also critical to scale that infrastructure responsibly. The emissions reduction benefits of coal-to-gas switching are well established, but the methane intensity of gas systems in the U.S. also declined by 40% between 2014 and 2024, signaling that the industry is committed to continue advancing natural gas’ climate potential.

The industry is focused on building upon its innovative progress, and in doing so, we can responsibly power the American economy and secure our global economic competitiveness. With these ambitions in mind, we need action to address our infrastructure. This urgency underscores that permitting reform, which will enable the energy industry to build solutions like pipelines and LNG facilities, should be a must-pass, bipartisan legislative priority for Congress.

Pausing LNG export approvals will carry long-term risks for our allies and ability to meet global climate goals

The Biden Administration’s pause on LNG exports will place our allies at the mercy of authoritarian regimes and won’t advance the fight against climate change

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has paused approvals of liquified natural gas (LNG) export facilities, injecting insecurity into global energy markets and jeopardizing the goals of the landmark COP28 climate agreement signed in December. That agreement recognized that natural gas is essential to the worldwide energy transition by providing a cleaner fuel source than coal while providing critical energy security. 

Unfortunately, this decision is not based on science and will have unintended impacts on the climate. It will also cut off our allies as they seek secure, less carbon-intensive energy sources to keep their lights on. The Washington Post Editorial Board sees this decision for what it is, "It's an election-year sop to climate activists that will do much more to unsettle vital US alliances than to save the planet."

Pausing LNG exports will resurface global energy insecurity

The rise of global instability in recent years has shown that the world lacks sufficient access to reliable, affordable, and cleaner sources that can adequately replace coal power generation, the largest source of power-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. If we restrict our gas exports, we'll leave our allies vulnerable to dirtier forms of energy, such as coal, and to many of the worst actors on the world stage. 

Two-thirds of the world's economically recoverable gas is in just four countries: Russia, Iran, Qatar, and the U.S. When Russia weaponized its reserves after invading Ukraine – beginning with cutting off its gas supply to Europe – the U.S. quickly stepped forward and supplied LNG to replace methane-intensive Russian gas. This support to our allies accounted for 40% of EU LNG imports in 2022. The New York Times reported that European allies are worried that this decision can undermine their progress to wean themselves off Russian gas. 

The Biden Administration's pause on LNG exports has the potential to resurface the kind of global energy instability we saw following the war in Ukraine. If we restrict our gas exports, our allies will be at the mercy of authoritarian regimes like Putin's. 

Increasing LNG exports helps keep energy prices low at home and abroad

PAGE and its members share the DOE's goal of ensuring affordable and stable energy prices for Americans. However, the pause of LNG exports could devastate the buildout of much-needed infrastructure to ensure Americans have reliable access to energy. 

The conjecture that LNG exports drive up US energy prices is also inaccurate. According to the Center for Strategic and International Affairs (CSIS), increased U.S. LNG exports have not affected energy prices at home over the past five years. 

LNG can help phase out foreign coal and achieve our climate goals

U.S. LNG also helped stabilize gas and electricity prices for customers in Europe. A pause or restriction of U.S. LNG capabilities risks destabilizing gas markets in Europe and beyond, undoing years of responsible energy policy. 

Halting LNG exports will likely result in a continued increase in foreign coal. In 2021, coal accounted for 44% of emissions from fuel combustion while only comprising 27% of the total energy supply. By comparison, gas' share (22%) was lower than its supply (24%).

The International Energy Agency (IEA) also reports that coal production is responsible for more methane than gas. Chinese coal production alone emits 15% of the world's energy-sector methane. This dwarfs LNG liquefaction and shipping methane emissions, which comprise just 0.3%. Meanwhile, Germany and other EU members have activated once-dormant coal plants to ensure their economies have enough energy to support their citizens during peak demand this winter.

The pause of LNG exports will only exacerbate this trend and likely make achieving the targets set out in the Paris Climate Agreement unfeasible. 

The Bottom Line

Energy security, cost, and climate action are all critical factors for achieving a sustainable global energy transition. Meeting a strict regulatory process and being produced and transported by responsible companies, U.S. natural gas is the only pragmatic solution to stabilize the energy landscape. 

The Partnership to Address Global Emissions (PAGE) strongly opposes the Biden Administration's unfortunate decision and vows to continue fighting for responsible energy policies that protect national security and advance climate solutions. 

COP28: An opportunity to harness the capabilities of clean natural gas

The annual UN Climate Change Conference, or COP28, will commence November 30 – December 12 in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. As the world's largest climate change conference, business and government leaders will convene to discuss progress towards achieving the Paris Climate Agreement.

While progress has been made in some countries, we are not currently on track to achieve our global emissions goals. According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) updated Net Zero Roadmap, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector reached an all-time high of 37 billion tons in 2022, 1% above their pre-pandemic level.

While various factors are to blame, a record-setting 3.3% increase in global coal consumption has perpetuated the rise of hazardous emissions.

At COP28, the key message must be conveyed: natural gas is a cleaner and more reliable alternative to coal.

To reach the Paris Agreement's target to limit the rise of global temperatures to 1.5 degrees Celsius, emissions need to peak before 2025 and be reduced by around 43% by 2030. That leaves a short window of opportunity that cannot be achieved without substantive policy redirection.

However, there is a straightforward solution to this challenge – exporting US natural gas can help phase out global coal and drastically reduce emissions. This solution, proven in the US, should play a central role in the worldwide conversation at COP28.

A breakthrough opportunity for the energy industry

In COP's brief history, energy companies have not been included in conversations about solutions to address climate change. But with this year's conference taking place in a major energy-producing region, the industry has an unprecedented opportunity to help advance a low-carbon future.

Sasha Mackler, Executive Director of the Bipartisan Policy Center's Energy Program, agreed that this will likely "lead to some quite dynamic discussion and hopefully some new shared understanding of how the oil and gas industry can be part of the solution when it comes to driving a net zero economy by mid-century."

The good news is the US natural gas industry is already taking critical steps to produce cleaner and more reliable energy.

For the natural gas industry, this means leading conversations about how LNG is not only part of the clean energy future but is critical to its success.

Clean LNG on the world stage

At COP28, the key message must be conveyed: natural gas is a cleaner and more reliable alternative to coal.

Coal consumption is responsible for about 40% of global GHG emissions, and supply chain and geopolitical challenges have caused coal demand to grow by approximately 1.5% in the first half of 2023. China and India have had the most significant increase in coal use, which will account for 70% of the world's total consumption this year.

Meanwhile, the US is producing far less coal and is substantially reducing its emissions. Since 2005, the US has experienced a remarkable 17% decline in GHG emissions by switching from coal to natural gas.

The US must move quickly to deploy natural gas to our allies to reduce coal dependency and lower global emissions. According to Naomi L. Boness, Managing Director of the Stanford Natural Gas and Hydrogen Initiatives, natural gas is critical "both to meeting energy security needs around the world [and replacing] the increased use of coal in places like India and China."

The good news is the US natural gas industry is already taking critical steps to produce cleaner and more reliable energy.

This includes methane abatement, which Paul Bledsoe of the Progressive Policy Institute says is essential in "limiting near-term temperature increases that are causing devastating climate change impacts around the world."

US LNG is also far cleaner and less methane-intensive than notoriously leaky natural gas from countries like Russia.

We need to harness the capabilities of natural gas

While the US has a plentiful supply of natural gas, more infrastructure is needed to ensure our ability to meet demand overseas. The rise of coal production worldwide shows what happens when the US cannot export enough clean and reliable energy.

Global energy security and climate change are on the line, so at COP28, US policymakers must advocate for the export of US natural gas to replace coal and finally prioritize permitting reform at home so we can unleash LNG.

"You actually need adults in the room," says Alex Herrgott, President & CEO of the Permitting Institute. "COP28 needs to be about the practicality of how we harness the technology and capabilities of natural gas to solve the real problems of today."

PAGE | Natural Allies CERAWeek Panel Discussion

Former Secretaries Ernest Moniz, Dan Brouillette, former Senator Mary Landrieu, and former Representative Tim Ryan emphasize the essential role that natural gas plays in the effort to simultaneously improve energy security and reduce emissions.